All Scientists are Sceptics ~Professor Bob Carter

Whenever someone asserts that a scientific question is “settled,” they tell me immediately that they don’t understand the first thing about science. Science is never settled. Dr David Deming

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the science of climate change is the lack of any real substance in attempts to justify the hypothesis ~Professor Stewart Franks

A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf

Saturday, 29 March 2014

The Inconvenient Truth: Earth Hour adds to CO2 emissions.

Emma and Andrew from The Amazing Spiderman 2
Earth Hour is a crazy idea that environmentalists have not thought through. How can turning off your lights for an hour whilst still have your sound system, your air-conditioner,  your dishwasher, your computer etc devouring electricity?

And how about reports of two film celebrities (Emma and Andrew from The Amazing Spiderman 2: Rise of Electro) jetting in to the Barrier Reef to help celebrate Earth Hour?

How will that reduce CO2 emissions?

That Skeptical Environmentalist Bjorn Lomberg has revealed the truth of Earth Hour.

Earth hour adds to "pollution", mocks the poor

If all the turned-off lights were turned into emission reductions they would not amount to much. 
It would likely be the equivalent of China halting its CO2 emissions for less than four minutes.
But even this is unrealistic because in the real world power plants keep running to accommodate usage from all other uses and the potential surge after the hour ends. The power sector thinks the net reduction is close to zero. (bold added)
And even this forgets that almost all participants light candles instead. But candles are almost 100 times less efficient than incandescent light bulbs, and more than 300 times less efficient than fluorescent lights. Light one candle and it will emit as much CO2 as you were saving. Light a bunch of candles and you’ll have emitted much more CO2. So Earth Hour may actually increase CO2 emissions. (bold added)
Lomborg then details the darker side of  the environmentalists' campaign:
While more than a billion people across the globe make a symbol of forgoing non-essential electrical power for one hour a year, another 1.3 billion people across the developing world will continue to live without electricity as they do every other night of the year. Almost three billion people still burn dung, twigs and other traditional fuels indoors to cook and keep warm. These fuels give off noxious fumes that kill an estimated 3.5 million people each year, mostly women and children. 
It was the advent of widespread electrical power that freed us from some of these harmful practices that still affect large parts of the developing world. Electric stoves and heaters have ended the scourge of indoor air pollution. 
It is, surely,  all part of the red Greens' plot to depopulate the world. 


Wednesday, 26 March 2014

The Global Warming Nazis are getting even more extreme.

Geochemist James Lawrence Powell continues to claim, the only people still debating whether or not climate change is “real,” and caused by human activity, are the ones who aren’t doing the actual research.

Well, I can tell Mr Powell that climate does change and has changed through all eternity so, to answer his first leg, "YES!" Climate Change is "real."

Is Climate Change caused by human activity. Well, also a qualified "YES!" The question Powell should ask is - "Are Humans' emissions of carbon dioxide causing catastrophic global warming?" As there has been no significant warming for more than 17 years, the answer to this must be "NO!"

Powell claims that he went through "
every scientific study published in a peer-review journal during the calendar year 2013." This blog before has answered and destroyed these outlandish claims and found them all lacking substance:


and many more......

To check that he was on the right track, he could have done a check with the NIPCC. The NIPCC ("Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change")  is an international panel of nongovernment scientists and scholars who have come together to understand the causes and consequences of climate change from a sceptical viewpoint, looking at information which is routinely ignored by the official U.N. body, the IPCC.

The NIPCC regularly reviewing the peer-reviews scientific literature and archives those reviews on their website. 

The second tranch of the NIPCC's Climate Change Reconsidered (CCRll) will be launched  Wednesday, April 9, 8:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. at National Press Club in Washington, DC

Geochemist James Lawrence Powell says: "the only people still debating whether or not climate change is “real,” and caused by human activity, are the ones who aren’t doing the actual research."

If you look at the names behind the NIPCC ( they are found here) all are scientists who have done research and most if not all have published papers.

Were their papers included in Powell's "
every scientific study published in a peer-review journal ..."

You can bet your sweet bippy they were NOT!

Tuesday, 25 March 2014

Climate Boffins Target Depression



Another Issue of "Carbon Sense” prepared by Viv Forbes and Supporters of The Carbon Sense Coalition.

25 March 2014

To view a print friendly pdf of this newsletter with all images see:http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/engineering-depression.pdf

Engineering the Emissions Target Depression. 

The Climate Change Authority wants Australians to cut their production of carbon dioxide to 19% below 2000 levels by the year 2020.

The climate boffins should employ a demographer before they set such unrealistic goals.

The population of Australia in 2000 was about 19 million and it is now 23 million. By 2020 it will probably be over 25 million.

If Australia’s production of carbon dioxide was merely frozen at the 2000 level, that would require a 24% reduction per head of population by 2020.

If we add to that a real reduction in total emissions of 19% by 2020, emissions per capita would need to fall by 39% in just 6 years.

Even more unbelievable, China (supported by the UN/IPCC) thinks that developed countries “need to cut emissions by 40% from their 1990 levels by 2020”. This would require Australia’s per capita emissions to fall by 60% to just 40% of their 1990 levels. All achieved within the next six years.

Nothing real gets produced or done without generating carbon dioxide. Every working car, truck, tractor, dozer, quad bike, boat, helicopter, bulk carrier and aeroplane generates carbon dioxide. None of these will be powered by wind-mills, sunbeams or nuclear power in the next six years. How will they force us to use 39% less of them – carbon ration cards?

Making steel, bricks, cement, bitumen, minerals, metals, food, fertilisers and roads produces carbon dioxide - shall we each use just 61% of what we did in 2000?

Humans, cattle, sheep, pigs, barbeques, champagne and beer also emit carbon dioxide – shall we ration these too?

And Australian trains, lifts, supermarkets, operating theatres, refineries and power stations will not keep working 24/7 without base-load electricity from coal and gas, both generating carbon dioxide. Who is volunteering for living solely with Green Energy - brown-outs, blackouts or irregular “Earth Hours” for about four months of the year?

There is one way to achieve these goals – “The Tasmanian Solution”. Send 40% of our remaining industry to Asia, and convert Australia into a quiet green utopia of genteel poverty. This should create sufficient unemployment and reduced consumption to achieve the required emissions austerity.

Is the Climate Change Authority engineering an emissions target depression to achieve its savage cuts, or is this just another mindless model-driven target? We should demand to see their detailed plans for achieving these targets.

Carbon dioxide is hugely beneficial for all plant life, and its effect on global temperature is tiny and probably beneficial for most people. There is no evidence that carbon dioxide causes extreme weather. Man-made Climate Policy is a far greater and more certain danger than Man-made Climate Change.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the tide has turned in the war on carbon. Global warming stopped seventeen years ago; the carbon price collapsed a year ago; the EU is backpedalling on its disastrous green energy gamble; Russia, China, India, Japan, Canada, USA, Brazil and South Africa will not sign any binding Kyoto agreement; China has plans to build 160 new coal fired power stations in the next four years; and Tim Flannery has been sacked.


Calculations for those who wish to check:

Climate Change Authority Targets:
Year
Population (Million)
Emissions Total
Emissions per head
Index emissions per head
2000
19
100 (say)
5.26
100
2020
25
100
4.00
76 (24% reduction)
2020
25
81 (19% reduction)
3.24
61 (39% reduction)

China/UN IPCC Targets:
Year
Population (Million)
Emissions Total
Emissions per head
Index emissions per head
1990
17
100 (say)
5.88
100
2020
25
60 (40% reduction)
2.4
41 (59% reduction)


If you would like to read more see:Climate Change Authority to propose 19% cut to emissions:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/climate-bodys-19pc-emissions-cut-to-heat-up-climate-debate/story-e6frg6xf-1226838724414#
No Global Warming for over 17 Years:
http://sppiblog.org/news/11163
http://sppiblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Monckton-graph1.png
European Carbon Price falls to Junk Status:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2013/04/carbon-trading
Global Temperatures continue to fall:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/03/05/fifteen-years-into-global-cooling-the-team-continues-to-maintain-their-scam/

China calls on developed nations to pay $400 billion and cut Carbon Dioxide emissions by 40% by 2020:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-06/china-calls-on-rich-nations-to-give-490-billion-for-climate.html
China and India building four Coal Fired Power Stations per week:
http://www.thegwpf.org/china-india-building-4-coal-power-plants-week/
The Green Energy Bust in Germany:http://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/green-energy-bust-in-germany

Modern Magic - Clean Energy by Wire

A month ago an arsonist lit a bush-fire that spread into the Morwell open cut coal mine in Victoria. Residents of the nearby town lived for weeks in choking polluted air.

This fire is a clear demonstration of what causes most air pollution – the open-air combustion of complex carbon-bearing products such as coal, oil, grass, sugar cane, cow dung, trees, wood, paper, urban rubbish, plastic bags, rubber tyres or dead bodies.

Asian smogs have a few special features – yellow dust from the massive Gobi Desert, fine ash and toxic fumes from dozens of volcanoes in Indonesia, funeral pyres along the Ganges, smoky mosquito fires and forest-clearing fires, millions of wood and dung cooking fires, hundreds of out-of-control coal-seam fires in China and India, and obsolete “back-yard” boilers and furnaces from the Mao era. In large Asian cities, pollution is multiplied by unburnt fuel and particulates spewing from old engines in millions of cars, trucks and motorbikes that clog the roads.

The fumes from open fires and dirty engines often contain soot, fine ash, unburnt hydrocarbons and oxides of sulphur and nitrogen. This is the pollution everyone can see, smell and taste. Notice that NONE of this real pollution is caused by invisible, life supporting, non-toxic carbon dioxide which, along with nitrogen and water vapour, are the main exhaust gases from well-designed boilers burning clean coal in modern power stations with the latest pollution controls.

The western world has gone through its “soot and smog” phase of development. Places like London (“the Big Smoke”) and Pittsburgh (“Steel City”) solved their pea soups many decades ago by outlawing the burning of dirty coal in open fires and stoves, by cleaning up industrial smelters and by providing urban heat, light and energy using piped coal gas and modern magic - pollution-free electricity from distant coal-fired power stations with modern pollution controls.

“Clean coal by Wire” using clean washed coal in modern out-of-town power stations will work the same magic in Asian cities today.

Disclosure: Viv Forbes is a non-executive director and shareholder in a small Australian coal exploration company, but these opinions were held and stated long before that association. This does not alter the truth about the causes of real air pollution.

If you would like to read more see:Locals Cough in the Morwell Smog:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/welcome-to-morwell-as-locals-cough-in-the-smog-from-hazelwood-opencut-mine-fire/story-fni0fit3-1226834261035
The World has thousands of natural and accidental coal fires:
http://gizmodo.com/the-worlds-oldest-underground-fire-has-been-burning-fo-1539049759
Is Coal Dirty?http://carbon-sense.com/2012/07/14/is-coal-dirty/
Coal Combustion & the Grand Carbon Cycle:
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/coal-combustion.pdf

There is “NO SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL WARMING”


A riveting video by John Coleman, a veteran meteorologist and founder of the Weather Channel

How it all began with a great scientist, Roger Revelle, and his adoring student Al Gore. And how Revelle recanted later, but Al Gore missed the turn and kept forging on ever deeper into the vast ocean of ignorance:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=SyUDGfCNC-k
But if we had some Global Warming, things would be better – a bit of fun:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=qJUFTm6cJXM

The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science –A new book by Dr Tim Ball http://www.amazon.com/The-Deliberate-Corruption-Climate-Science/dp/0988877740/ref=sr_1_cc_1?s=aps&ie=UTF8&qid=1390142974&sr=1-1-catcorr&keywords=tim+ball+corruption

But a Professor Wants Climate Change "Deniers" Thrown in Jailhttp://finance.townhall.com/columnists/michaelschaus/2014/03/16/professor-wants-climate-change-deniers-thrown-in-jail-n1809711


The Ship of FoolsIf you would like the full gory details of the Ship of Warmists who got stuck in the Antarctic Ice, see here:
http://climateaudit.org/2014/01/15/ship-of-fools/


The Sixth Winter
(have we backed the wrong horse?)

Way back in the 1980’s I read a science fiction novel called “The Sixth Winter”. It was something like an IPCC science fiction report but far more credible and readable. One of the authors was Dr John Gribbin, an astro-physicist who contributed to a Cambridge University Study “Climate Change”.

It includes this ominous passage (p23):

“Should such a pattern of jet stream zigzag and “blocking high” conditions recur over five or six reasonably closely-spaced winters, with summer sunshine insufficient to melt all the snow from each preceding winter, this may quite rapidly build snow cover over the north-eastern part of North America beyond the point of no return. 
Snow cover may similarly build over northern USSR possibly triggering an Ice Age.
In February 2014, Dr Gerrit J van der Lingen published a paper entitled “Global Cooling” in which he notes “the Northern Hemisphere has experienced five severe winters in a row with record snowfalls and low temperatures”.

Have a look at what North America is experiencing now:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/02/21/snow-storm-blizzard-midwest-south/1934667/


Maybe the western world has gambled our future on a tiring nag called “Global Warming” whereas we should have placed some insurance money on the strong new galloper called “Global Cooling”.

Finally, Let’s Axe the Carbon Tax. Send them yet another message:


If you would like to see some of these signs roaming the streets of Perth before the WA Senate Election, send a donation to: 
http://www.galileomovement.com.au/donations.php

Authorised by:
Viv Forbes,
The Carbon Sense Coalition
Rosewood    Qld   Australia
forbes@carbon-sense.com


“Carbon Sense” is an independent newsletter produced for the Carbon Sense Coalition, an Australian based organisation which opposes waste of resources, opposes pollution, and promotes the rational use of all energy resources including carbon energy.
Literary, financial or other contributions to help our cause are welcomed. We get no government grants and unlike many of our opponents, we do not pose as a charity and in fact pay GST and income tax on our operations. We live on subscriptions alone.
For more information visit our web site at 
www.carbon-sense.com
If you would like to keep Carbon Sense operating, send subscriptions to
Carbon Sense Pty Ltd, by post to the address below, or direct deposit to:
Acct No: 553 077 331

Global UNwarming - Why take another step?

Law Lecturer Peter Burdon
Peter Burdon -a lecturer in law at the University of Adelaide has written an opinion piece for the ABC. 

The ABC ignores its charter to be even handed and only looks at one side of the Climate Debate - the great Global UNwarming debate. 

They will not talk to the qualified scientists from the realist side of the debate, eg Bob Carter, Gordon Fulks, David Evans, Richard Lindzen, Ian Plimer, Bill Kininmonth Vincent Gray etc etc. They do, however, talk to people with qualifications in Ethics (eg UNethical Prof Lewandowsky) and Law (Eg Burdon.) 


Although the man-made globalwarming hypothesis has been falsified many times and there has been no warming or UNwarming for more than 17 and a half years, the ABC still pushes the catastrophic man made global warming (CAGW) scare and this piece by Peter Burdon (Climate change: the situation is hopeless...let's take the next stepcontinues the theme.

Curiously, from a legal man whose profession examine each and every word, Burdon starts by talking of "trust." Well, the Global Warming Nazis have just about wiped out trust in climate science with  their "Hide the Decline," and "Mike's Nature Trick." Science however is not a matter of trust; science is not about belief. "Do you believe in global warming?" is a religious question and not a scientific question.

Then Burdon curiously goes through a passage of grief to finally arrive at
Following this, it is well documented that a healthy and effective response to grief is to join with others and act. Isolation is disempowering and I do not think there is anything to be gained by capitulating. 
As the cellist Pablo Casals said: "The situation is hopeless; we must now take the next step." Finding meaning in adverse circumstances is an enduring human quality and one that we need to collectively summon again. 
Even if it is too late to prevent a 2°C rise in temperature there is still much we can do, and any success in reducing emissions will greatly improve the survival odds of communities around the world.

Strange - there has been no warming for more than 17 years. There has only been warming of less than 1ºC since the planet defrosted from the Little Ice Age. It takes a great leap of faith (religion) to be talking about preventing a 2ºC rise in temperature.

Then Burdon talks of a "Post Carbon World." As Bob Brinsmead wrote in his essay: "An Irrational Fear of Carbon:"
There are vast stores of carbon in the earth, most of it in the form of carbonated rocks and organic material from all forms of life that have died to  make decomposing vegetation, humus, coal and other fossil fuels. The ocean too contains vast amounts of carbon stored in sediments, shells, corals. The ocean contains about ninety times more carbon dioxide than is found in the atmosphere. Besides all this carbon in the earth (the lithosphere), oceans and rivers (the hydrosphere) and in the air (the atmosphere), there is a great amount of carbon stored up in all the living plants and creatures on earth (the biosphere).   
This includes the micro-organisms in the soil and in the oceans. This micro-life makes up more than two thirds of the world’s biomass. As any good text book on biology will tell us, all life on this planet is carbon-based. Every living thing, whether plant or animal is composed of carbon compounds. The building blocks for life are made of carbon.  The dry matter of plants, whether giant trees or tiny grasses, is more than 90% carbon.  The entire animal kingdom is also composed of carbon. Every organ, nerve, and the trillions of cells right down to our DNA is composed of carbon compounds.
ALL life on this planet is carbon based!

Therefore, is Burdon's "Post Carbon World" are Post Life World?

Then Mr Burdon moves on to actions and his plan could equally apply to the realist side of the debate.

Burdon advocates:
          • our actions might involve raising awareness about climate change;
             We realists should promote that fact of Global UNwarming and the innocence of CO2
          • speaking to politicians in your electorate;  
         We realists should being contacting our MPs and letting them know that many in the electorate are aware of the global warming hoax;
         • supporting sustainable technology such as solar thermal;
            We realists should be pointing out the uselessness, unfairness and the failures on wind and solar


Let's not forget the Complete list of things caused by Global Warming which has yet to be updated by the Global Warming Nazi's latest Scare that the Malaysian Airliner maybe harder to find due to Global (UN)Warming.

Monday, 24 March 2014

Environmental Scams

IPCC Expert Reviewer VINCENT GRAY's
NZCLIMATE TRUTH NEWSLETTER NO 329
 24th MARCH 2014

Artistic Depiction of
Nuclear Winter
ENVIRONMENTAL SCAMS

In order to impose on the world their dogmas and restrictions, the Environmental Movement has abandoned rational discussion, scientific method  and  open debate and adopted the principle that the ends justify the means. Distortion and fabrication of evidence has become routine, and is a feature of our news bulletins, scientific journals, schools and university departments. Sceptics are “deniers”, hounded from employment and publishable only on the Internet. Exaggeration, partial evidence, speculation and unjustified assumptions are compounded, often with the help of computers, to provide scare scenarios for the future. 

The following are examples


This idea from the early 1980s arose from the popularity of computer models and was promoted by the physicist Carl Sagan. It was claimed that a serious nuclear war would not only cause many deaths and a disruption of human existence but would cause so much soot and other aerosols in the atmosphere that all plant life on earth would die.

The use of nuclear weapons would undoubtedly cause considerable harm. Since some 93% of them are in the arsenals of Russia and the USA the priority is avoiding a war between them, something which we hope has become increasingly remote. As for the rest we should note that even nuclear bombing of modern towns, largely built from concrete and steel, would not contribute the vast amounts of smoke required for this theory

We hope an international treaty for the abolition and destruction of such weapons may progress. Unfortunately this is unlikely until all states have a free choice, rather than being pushed around by those who own them already. 

Sagan expected that the fires in the Kuwait oilfields would provide a “nuclear winter”. But he got it wrong.  Some who think that Beijing air pollution could be disastrous are unaware that similar problems of air pollution in Britain and elsewhere have been successfully solved without a possible “nuclear winter.”
.
When I lived in Manchester in 1951 I recall a “pea soup fog” where I could not see an illuminated street lamp. I was a member of the Clean Air Society at the time. This Society was dissolved when a policy of clean air was adopted by most local bodies, despite occasional lapses.

SILENT SPRING


Silent Spring by biologist/zoologist Rachel Carson (Houghton Mifflin 1962) warned of the dangers that DDT allegedly posed to all manner of plant, animal, and human life. These threats were so great, said Carson, that on balance they more than negated whatever benefits were to be gained from using the pesticide to prevent malaria.


Carson claimed that the atmospheric presence of DDT and its metabolites, DDE (Dichloro-Diphenyldichloro-Ethylene) and DDD (Dichloro-Diphenyl-Dichloroethane), caused the shells of bird eggs to become thinner, thereby leading to an increased incidence of egg breakage and/or embryo death. This, Carson postulated, would severely interfere with bird reproduction and ultimately would lead to a “silent spring” bereft of the familiar sounds of birdsongs.

She also stated that the overall rise in U.S. cancer rates between 1940 (the dawn of the DDT era) and 1960 proved that DDT was a carcinogen. She predicted that DDT and other pesticides would spark a cancer epidemic that would wipe out “practically 100 percent” of the human population.

After seven months of hearings in 1971, which produced 125 witnesses and 9,362 pages of testimony, EPA Judge Edmund Sweeney concluded that according to the evidence:
DDT is not a carcinogenic hazard to man ... is not a mutagenic or teratogenic hazard to man ... [and the] use of DDT under the regulations involved here do not have a deleterious effect on freshwater fish, estuarine organisms, wild birds or other wildlife.
The banning of the use of DDT has caused great harm to their precious “environment” because supposedly “organic” agriculture, campaigns against improved genetically engineered crops, and the production of biofuels require extra land, which has to come from clearing native reserves, with harm to the native birds. The cost of food is increased and so world poverty.

The withdrawal of DDT is thought to have caused the deaths of an extrea 50 million victims of malaria.

In September 2006, the WHO announced that it would thenceforth actively support indoor spraying of the chemical as a prevention of malaria “not only in epidemic areas but also in areas with constant and high malaria transmission, including throughout Africa.” “The scientific and programmatic evidence clearly supports this reassessment,”said Dr. Anarfi Asamoa-Baah, WHO assistant director-general for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. “DDT presents no health risk when used properly.”

Elaborating on this theme, the WHO issued a statement asserting that DDT “provides the most effective, cheapest, and safest means of abating and eradicating” infectious diseases like malaria and typhus, which “may have killed half of all the people that ever lived.”

The following table lists the consequences of this decision



It shows that18 countries are now either making use of DDT or planning to do so.

WORLD DYNAMICS AND LIMITS TO GROWTH

The United Nations conference on the Human Environment, held in Stockholm in June 1972 (Secretary-General Maurice F. Strong), was dominated by the sensation that had been caused by the publication of two books, World Dynamics by Jay W. Forrester (Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge Mass. USA 1971) and Limits to Growth  by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jφrgen Randers and William W. Behrens III (New York, Universe Books, and London, Earth Island, 1972)

Forrester was a systems-dynamics analyst, Professor of Management at the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He devised an early computer model intended to simulate the world responses to environmental change. His parameters were population, resources, pollution, capital and agriculture. Fig 1 shows the multitude of feedback loops , from which he derived his World 2 model.

Figure 1, Feedback Loops (Forrester 1973)



His book actually lists all the equations he used, taking up only two pages, a modest list by today's standards. Fig 2 shows the main predictions of the standard run of his model, where decline is caused by depletion of resources. Steadily increasing resource costs inhibit industrial growth. This has the effect of lowering standards and causing population to decline. Pollution plays no part here, unless the resource or capital declines are inoperative. Note that the population decline is scheduled from 2020, and the quality of life declines from 1950.
Figure 2. World Forecasts (Forrester 1973)

The trick is to ignore the lessons of history, which show how human progress is dependent of human ingenuity. If this disappears disaster obviously follows.

THE POPULATION BOMB

Paul R Erlich The Population Bomb  (Ballantine 1971) and  The Population Explosion (with Ann H  Erlich, Simon and Schuster 1990) have publicised the belief that the world’s population is too large and is exceeding its resources.

Malthus claimed that, if unrestrained, population will increase exponentially. But all organisms are restrained by the struggles of evolution with other organisms.  Population of any organism depends on success in finding food, coping with predators, and  ingenuity in expanding territory. Human population increase is closely related to success in all of these factors,

Much is made of the current increases in human population but little attention is paid to its lack of uniformity.
 
Figure 3 Fertility rates in different countries.


The above map shows that fertility rates in most developed countries are currently below the level needed to replace the present population. In undeveloped countries, particularly most of Central Africa and a part of India, fertility rates are above the ability of the local economy to provide support for them.

Population programmes depend on the locality. They need to concentrate on encouragement for childbearing in advanced countries but for Central Africa and part of India there is a need for contraceptive advice, empowerment of women, and industrial development .

DEPLETION OF RESOURCES

Ehrlich and others believed the Earth's resources were becoming scarcer. Expanding population uses them at an increased rate. Therefore he predicted that the prices of these resources should increase. In 1980 Julian L Simon offered Ehrlich a bet. Ehrlich could choose any five raw materials he wanted. Simon sold Ehrlich an option to buy an amount of each raw material worth $200 in 1980 dollars. If the prices increased over the next ten years, Simon would pay Ehrlich; however, if the prices decreased over the same time period, Ehrlich would have to pay Simon.

 Ehrlich chose five metals: copper, chrome, nickel, tin and tungsten. The bet was on. Ten years later, after adjusting for inflation, just as predicted, the prices of all five metals went down. Ehrlich had lost. He sent Simon a check and nothing else. Simon offered to bet again and up the ante to $20,000; Ehrlich declined.

Those who are capable of believing that the world is static and has a fixed amount of resources are also capable of believing that a static population will steadily deplete the ”resources" and decline to zero.

Fortunately the real world constantly changes. What constitutes resources also changes, related to the requirements of society, and its ingenuity on meeting them.

The following figures are from the BP Statistical  Review of World Energy 2013 


 show how the proved resources of various forms of energy have changed

PROVEN ENERGY RESOURCES 
Energy
1992
2002
2011
2012
Oil Barrelsx199
1039.3
1321.5
1654.1
1638.9
Gas m6
177.6
154.9
187.8
187.3
Coal tonnes6
981.8
984.5
861.0

Nuclear mt oil  eq
610.5

586.4

Hydro mt oil eq
598.5


851.1

Despite the persistent claims that the oil and gas resources are falling they have a permanent tendency to keep on increasing. Hydro is also increasing and nuclear power is now being planned to increase

WATER SHORTAGE

All organisms need water. Heat from the sun evaporates it, mainly from the oceans , and deposits it as rain, hail, snow. dew and  frost. Since most precipitation on land originated from the oceans, a steady bonus is supplied by the climate to the land. Some may fill or replenish natural aquifers. The surplus flows from rivers back to the sea.

Potable water is need for drinking and cooking, Water is also needed for crops, cleaning, sewage disposal. Human settlements have always been chosen from local accessibility to water. Human expansion has needed measures to ensure reliability of supply. The Romans pioneered the construction of reservoirs pipelines drainage and aqueducts.

Today their example pervades the world, and there is the addition of the possibility of desalinating sea water, now practised by 25 different countries.

The availability of water is usually considered to be a human right that is available free, but supply costs money, which has to come from somewhere, to an extent that depends on location and time of year. All claims of water shortage can be met by the availability of finance, but this truth is somehow often ignored.

Many current problems arise from reluctance to maintain, modernize or expand pipelines, reservoirs or water treatment plants to meet increases in demand. Campaigns to conserve water or limit its use are easier to do than find or spend the money to increase services Some recent floods in Britain were caused by neglect of drainage, recommended by environmentalists, supposedly to benefit endangered species.

THE GLOBAL WARMING SCAM AND CLIMATE CHANGE SWINDLE

There is no question that the most successful scam ever perpetrated by the environmental movement is the claim that the climate is entirely controlled by human emissions of carbon dioxide and other minor trace gases. This Newsletter will eventually become part of my new book of the above title which is now in progress.