All Scientists are Sceptics ~Professor Bob Carter

Whenever someone asserts that a scientific question is “settled,” they tell me immediately that they don’t understand the first thing about science. Science is never settled. Dr David Deming

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the science of climate change is the lack of any real substance in attempts to justify the hypothesis ~Professor Stewart Franks

A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf

Saturday, 27 April 2013

Australian Government Sea Level Rise Claims Wrong.

Image: Joanne Nova
The Australian Government have been presenting alarming stories of sea level rise. From the Department of Climate Change site (link)
Coastal areas will be vulnerable to flooding from sea level rise in different ways, in large part due to the topography, or elevation, of the landscape. Highly accurate mapping of the elevation of the landscape is therefore essential to identify low-lying areas that are potentially at risk of inundation from rising sea levels.
The  Department of Climate Change refer to the Australian Government's Geoscience Ozcoast Website: (link)
In late 2009, the Australian Government completed a national assessment of the climate change risks to Australia's coast. The assessment identified the climate change risks to coastal settlements, infrastructure, industries and ecosystems; it found that up to 247,000 residential buildings in Australia, with an estimated replacement value of $63 billion (2008 values), may be at risk from rising sea levels by 2100.
Towards the end of this century it is possible that all of Australia's coastal regions will experience systematic impacts from rising sea levels and eroding shorelines.
From the Government's Publication - Climate Change and the Coast (pdf link)
KEY FINDINGS
  • Recent science findings suggest the climate system is changing faster than projected and that the impacts of climate change are likely to be more severe.
  • Under a high-emissions scenario, a sea-level rise of up to a metre or more by the end of the century is plausible. (My emphasis)
  • Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme sea level events, such as storm surges combined with higher mean sea level, will lead to escalating risks of coastal inundation. Under the highest sea-level rise cenario by mid-century, inundations that previously occurred once every hundred years could happen several times a year.
The HOCKEY SCHTICK reports a  peer-reviewed research paper published by the journal Environmental Science. (Link - pdf)


A new peer-reviewed paper by sea level expert Nils-Axel Mörner, concludes that Australian government claims of a 1 meter sea level rise by 2100 are greatly exaggerated, finding instead that sea levels are rising around Australia and globally at a rate of only 1.5 mm/year. This would imply a sea level change of only 0.13 meters or 5 inches by 2100. Dr. Morner also finds no evidence of any acceleration in sea level rise around Australia or globally.




CONCLUSIONS:

In view of the data presented, we believe that we are justified to draw the following conclusions: 
(1) The official Australian claim [2,3] of a present sea level rise in the order of 5.4mm/year is significantly exaggerated (Figure 3). 
(2) The mean sea level rise from Australian tide gauges as well as global tide gauge networks is to be found within the sector of rates ranging from 0.1 to 1.5 mm/year (yellow wedge in Figure 3). 
(3) The claim of a recent acceleration in the rate of sea level rise [2,3,12] cannot be validated by tide gauge records, either in Australia or globally (Figure 3). Rather, it seems strongly contradicted [19,21,24,39-41]
The practical implication of our conclusions is that there, in fact, is no reason either to fear or to prepare for any disastrous sea level flooding in the near future.

Perhaps the Australian Government really knew the truth.

The Australian Minister for Climate Change, Greg Combet and Australia's Climate Change Commissioner Tim Flannery BOTH bought properties just above sea level.

PS. A Press release from Greg Combet says that Greg has added "wind to the sails" by a grant to convert a sea level boat shed at Rathmines into a home for the Lake Macquarie Classic Boat Association.
Rathmines
Photo: Cruising Family Robinson
Greg:

FULL STEAM AHEAD FOR THE MEN’S BOAT SHED AT RATHMINES  

“There is a small but dedicated group of volunteers at the Lake Macquarie Classic Boat Association, and they work tirelessly each year to bring the popular Classic Boatfest to life,” Mr Combet said. 
“Now they have a new mission – a Men’s Boat Shed.” 
“I’m really pleased this grant will help get this unique shed up and running, and I have no doubt it will appeal to a lot of local boaties with a bit of time to spare.”
Don't worry, Greg. The Men's Boat Shed won't be inundated. (Neither will your seaside family home.)

Thursday, 25 April 2013

The Beginning Of The End.


NZCLIMATE TRUTH NEWSLETTER NO 308

APRIL 25th 2013

by IPCC Expert Reviewer Vincent Gray

THE BEGINNING OF THE END

I have been neglecting you. Things have quietened down. I am 91 and it is high time I retired, like my friend Will Alexander in South Africa or my major protagonist, former Professor Martin Manning. I thought I would call it a day on Newsletter No 300.

When I began, in 1991 I was still in China. I got involved in commenting on the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and I just completed those on the Fifth Report which will surely be my last.

To begin with I was the only critical voice in New Zealand. Last week I attended a packed meeting of the Press Club in Wellington to hear Lord Monckton tear apart the IPCC and everything connected with it. The University scientists will not listen to him. But one of the organisers of the meeting was from the Music Department.

But, surely, we are at the beginning of the end.

The globe has stopped warming; even when measured by the botched-up biased system that they favour.

The Kyoto Protocol is dead. Emissions by former members are in steady decline compared with those from non-members

The support literature has dried up. I used to go to the University every month and photocopy the latest scientific outrage for these Newsletters. The only recent feeble attempt was the rapidly discredited attempt by Marcott to fabricate yet another Hockey Stick at

The “Economist” magazine has expressed doubts


A recent report by the Influential Swedish Research Institute SINTEF at

has shown that there is a genuine scientific controversy that should be encouraged; that it is by no means, “settled”

The Emissions Trading scheme is in retreat. European prices have headed for the bottom and they.are about to ditch their scheme. I do not know what has happened to our prices but you can all be assured that whatever happens to the Mighty River Power shares the incentives to go in for windmills and solar power will disappear and we can, eventually have a sensible, economical power policy which will include fracking, coal and small scale nuclear.

But you would hardly think so, listening to all of our politicians, or if you read the newspapers or watch TV. So let me finish by encouraging you all with this article by James Delingpole


Cheers
Vincent Gray
Wellington 6035
New Zealand



Wednesday, 24 April 2013

Gallipoli: Can you hear Australia's Heroes Marching?



Can you hear Australia’s Heroes marching?

    Can you hear them as they march into Eternity?

There will never be a greater love;

   There just couldn’t be a greater sacrifice;

There JUST Couldn’t be!


The Gallipoli campaign resonated profoundly among all nations involved. In Turkey, the battle is perceived as a defining moment in the history of the Turkish people; the campaign was the first major battle undertaken in the war by Australia and New Zealand, and is often considered to mark the birth of national consciousness in both of these countries.

Anzac Day, 25 April, remains the most significant commemoration of military casualties and veterans in Australia and New Zealand. This is the 98th Anniversary.

Marlo Thomas - Ways to be Wrong

Old Publicity Photo
That Girl - Activist Actress Marlo Thomas writes creative fiction.

Her latest excursion is in the field of Science Fiction which she has written for the Huffington Post (Link).

How can one column get so many things wrong?
Climate change is one of those topics that practically dares you to step up to it. We know it exists and we know it's critical, but it's so enormous that it's hard to wrap your head around it.
Climate change exists. Right. Climate has changed since the beginning of time. She says that "it's so enormous that it's hard to wrap your head around it.."

Then she failed to get her head around it!

She obviously isn't aware that climate change is a term that the alarmists decided to use when the natural global warming stalled. The CO2 caused runaway Global Warming hypothesis has been falsified, the warming has stalled.
Discussions and conferences will be held, concerns will be voiced, problems will be addressed, plans will be made and actions will be taken.
Hypocrites have been flying around the world for discussions and conferences for more than twenty years. All in vain.

She then addresses  Ways to be Green.

Eat less Meat?
The carbon emissions that result from meat production are some of the most potent, and are large contributors to climate change.
Actually Cattle are emission neutral. As Gerrit van der Lingen explains on the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition site (Link)

Dr Gerrit van der LIngen explains why emissions of methane from cattle and sheep should not be part of any emissions trading system in New Zealand. According to MAF, 98.7% of agricultural methane comes from ruminant enteric fermentation, released by burping; and is part of a natural closed loop that has nothing to do with fossil sequestered carbon. (LINK to download pdf)
That Girl! To quote her TV theme song: (link)
She's tinsel on a tree...


H/t Marc Morano

David Deming Dubs Alarmists - Real Deniers

The ‘relationship’ between
CO2 and temperature this century
David Deming has a BS in geology and his Phd is in geophysics. He is Associate Professor of Arts and Sciences at the University of Oklahoma. Deming is the author of more than thirty research papers and the textbook Introduction to Hydrogeology. He is an associate editor for the academic journals Petroleum Geoscience and Ground Water. (link)

NCTCS blog has previously reported the exchange between Dr David Deming and IPCC Lead Author Jonathan Overpeck (link.)  Overpeck emailed Deming saying that, to scare people, they had to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP.)  Phil Jones (Professor in the School of Environmental Sciences, UEA)  referred to it in the Climategate emails.

David Deming gave evidence to the Senate enquiry (see you-tube below), although as he hadn't archived the email, didn't mention Overpeck. Later, Overpeck put his hand up as the author.

Dr Deming has written for the Washington Post a piece titled:

The real deniers of climate change

He describes the current cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere.
The United Kingdom had the coldest March weather in 50 years, and there were more than a thousand record low temperatures in the United States. The Irish meteorological office reported that March “temperatures were the lowest on record nearly everywhere.” Spring snowfall in Europe was also high. In Moscow, the snow depth was the highest in 134 years of observation.
He details predictions made by Alarmists:
  • winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. (British IPCC contributor David Viner)
  • children just aren’t going to know what snow is. (environmental activist Robert Kennedy Jr.)
  • less snow and more blizzards (Associated Press)
He continues:
Portraying cold weather as the result of global warming is only one aspect of the circus. Gems that stand out include claims that earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes are caused or will be made worse by global warming. Last year, we were told that global warming could “turn us all into hobbits,” the mythical creatures from J.R.R. Tolkien’s novels.
Confronted by an endless avalanche of such nonsensical drivel, it seems almost foolhardy to argue facts. There has been no increase in mean global temperature for 15 years.
Although the Alarmists are now switching to saying extreme weather events are caused by Global warming, David details
  • Drought is not increasing
  • Tornadoes are not increasing in frequency or intensity. 
  • Worldwide hurricane activity is near a 40-year low. Over the past 20 years, sea level has risen by about 5 centimeters an ominous trend unless you’re aware that since the end of the last Ice Age, global sea level has risen 120 meters.
  • Global sea ice was above the 30-year mean and higher than it was in March 1980.
Dr Deming concludes:
With each passing year, it is becoming increasingly clear that global warming is not a scientific theory subject to empirical falsification, but a political ideology that has to be fiercely defended against any challenge. It is ironic that skeptics are called “deniers” when every fact that would tend to falsify global warming is immediately explained away by an industry of denial.



H/t Marc Morano's Climate Depot.

Tuesday, 23 April 2013

Kessler reveals the truth about Al Gore: An Egotistical Ass!

In a book by distinguished reporter and author Ronald Kessler titled "In the President's Secret Service" we learn of behind the scenes events in the protection of the Presidents.

The book was described by USA Today as a "fascinating exposé ... high-energy read ... amusing, saucy, often disturbing anecdotes about the VIPs the Secret Service has protected and still protects .

We learn of moral men and philanderers; highly decent men and complete phonies like the father of the Global Financial Crisis Jimmy Carter.

The bit that grabbed my attention was Kessler's description of the 45th Vice President Albert Arnold Gore.

*  An egotistical ass, who was once overheard by his Secret Service detail  lecturing his only son that he needed to do better in school or he “would  end up like these guys” — pointing to the agents.*


Another amusing anecdote was the bottled water episode:
As part of his health kick, Gore arranged to have bottled water delivery and a refrigerated dispenser at the Vice Presidential residence. As part of routine security precautions, the Secret Service would test the water at the vice president's residence. "They've got this phenomenal water purification system in both the White House and the vice president's residence," says a former agent. "We would test the water once a month, samples from all the sinks and taps." But the bottled water was not being tested. So the Secret Service sent samples of the water to the Environmental Protection Agency for testing. Two days later, EPA called; a shocked technician said the water at the vice president's residence was laced with bacteria. "He said the EPA had to expand its graph to be able to count the number of bacteria," an agent recalls. "The water could cause headaches, diarrhea, and stomachaches." As a result of the test findings, the EPA confiscated huge batches of water from the bottled water company.  (link)

Monday, 22 April 2013

Earth Day's Credibilty Damaged - I'm with stupid!

The following media release may be found on line at http://tinyurl.com/c8dwpvm.

EARTH DAY'S CREDIBILITY DAMAGED BY DOMINANCE OF CLIMATE ACTIVISTS

Legitimate environmental concerns being shortchanged by focus on bogus global warming scare

Ottawa, Canada, April 22, 2013:  "Earth Day participants must distance themselves from the climate scare or risk the event degenerating into irrelevance,” said Tom Harris, executive director of the Ottawa-based International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC). Noting the intense climate focus in this year’s Earth Day Network advertising,
Harris warned, “As the hypothesis that humanity’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are causing dangerous global warming falls into disrepute, all those associated with the climate alarm will also lose credibility.” 
ICSC Science Advisory Board member, Dr. Tim Ball, former University of Winnipeg climatology professor, explained:
“All sensible people are environmentalists. We all want clean air, land and water and to protect species at risk to the degree possible considering the many other important demands on society.” 

“But controlling global climate through restricting emissions is unscientific nonsense,” Ball continued. “The greenhouse gas most under attack by climate campaigners, CO2, is a benefit to the environment, its rise resulting in more crop yield and a densification of forests.” 
ICSC Chief Science Advisor Dr. Bob Carter, of James Cook University in Australia pointed out that:
“The global temperature statistic has not risen since 1997 despite an increase in emissions of 8%. This nullifies the main argument presented by climate campaigners.” 

“Climate changes all the time, and it is important that civil hazard organisations are prepared for its extremes,” said Carter. “But as demonstrated by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, of which I am a contributing author, there are thousands of scientists and peer-reviewed science papers that refute the hypothesis that human emissions of CO2 are causing dangerous warming.” 

ICSC Energy Issues Advisor power consultant Bryan Leyland of New Zealand added:
“Yet hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent subsidizing wind, solar and wave power in an effort to reduce CO2 emissions. None of these new renewable energy technologies can provide electricity when needed during times of peak demand. All of them are at the mercy of the wind, sun, tides and waves. In addition, the capacity factor—the ratio of the average output to the maximum output—varies between 10% and seldom exceeds 40%. 
So, for instance, 1000 Megawatt (MW) coal or nuclear power stations each generate the same amount of energy as several thousand MW of renewable energy. Regardless, independent research shows that they do little to reduce emissions of CO2, a gas that promotes plant growth and, as we now know, has no measurable effect on the climate.” 
“Coal, natural gas, hydro and nuclear power can provide a reliable supply of all the electricity we need for the foreseeable future, and at a low cost,” said Leyland. “Expensive and intermittent renewable energy technologies can never play more than a bit part in electricity generation.” 

Ball provides a sample of how climate alarmism has resulted in the misappropriation of funds worldwide: “Canadian Environment Minister Peter Kent said last month that ‘Canada has invested more than $10 billion since 2006 to reduce greenhouse gases, to improve energy efficiency, to develop green infrastructure.’ But, overall energy efficiency has actually declined as politicians like Kent have forced so-called “green” alternate energy sources on society to appease climate campaigners. Had the $10 billion been spent on reducing pollution and improving and expanding existing energy sources such as coal-fired electricity generation, both the economy and the environment would be in far better shape.” 

Harris concludes, “It is crucially important that practical environmentalists dissociate the movement from ideologically-driven climate activists. Otherwise, society will throw Earth Day, and indeed the whole environmental movement, into the dustbin of history.”
___________________________________________________________________
The ICSC is a non-partisan group of scientists, economists and energy and policy experts who are working to promote better understanding of climate science and related policy worldwide. We aim to help create an environment in which a more rational, open discussion about climate issues emerges, thereby moving the debate away from implementation of costly and ineffectual “climate control” measures. Instead, ICSC encourages effective planning for, and adaptation to, inevitable natural climate variability, and continuing scientific research into the causes and impacts of climate change. 

ICSC also focuses on publicizing the repercussions of misguided plans to “solve the climate crisis”. This includes, but is not limited to, “carbon” sequestration as well as the dangerous impacts of attempts to replace conventional energy supplies with wind turbines, solar power, most biofuels and other ineffective and expensive energy sources.
____________________________________________________________________
For more information about this announcement or ICSC in general, visit http://www.climatescienceinternational.org, or contact: 

In North America:

Tom Harris, B. Eng., M. Eng. (Mech. - thermofluids)
Executive Director, International Climate Science Coalition
P.O. Box 23013
Ottawa, Ontario K2A 4E2
Canada
Email: tom.harris@climatescienceinternational.net
Phone: 613-728-9200

In Australia:

Professor Robert (Bob) M. Carter, PhD, Hon. FRSNZ
Chief Science Advisor, International Climate Science Coalition
Emeritus Fellow, Institute for Public Affairs, Melbourne
Marine Geophysical Laboratory
James Cook University
Townsville, Queensland, 4811
Australia
Email:  bob.carter@jcu.edu.au
Phone (mobile): +61-(0)419-701-139
Phone (evening): +61-(0)7-4775-1268

In New Zealand:

Bryan Leyland, M.Sc., FIEE, FIMechE, FIPENZ, consulting engineer
Energy Issues Advisor, International Climate Science Coalition
Auckland 1022
New Zealand
Email: bryanleyland@mac.com
Phone: +64 9 940 7047; mobile: +64 21 978 996

In Europe:

Professor Ole Humlum, PhD
Science Advisory Board member, International Climate Science Coalition
Professor of Physical Geography, Department of Physical Geography
Institute of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
E-mail: ole.humlum@geo.uio.no
Phone: +47 79 02 33 00 (department); +47 79 02 33 20 (direct).  Fax: +47 79 02 33 01.
Webpage: http://www.unis.no/35_staff/staff_webpages/geology/ole_humlum/olepersonal.htm

Bumpier Science and Uniform Warming.

Miranda Kerr demonstrating
Uniform Warming
 As the man-made Global Warming hypothesis gets exposed as a hoax, the Alarmists desperately seek new versions of their alarmist credo.

The latest is the Global Warming (hey! No AGW for 17-23 years) will cause turbulence for your airline flights. 

Come again?

The latest is the (man-made) Global Warming (hey! No AGW for 17-23 years) will cause turbulence for your flights. 

The Courier Mail reported:

Climate change blamed for bumpier flights 


Can it be so? The report from study co-author Paul Williams of the University of Reading's National Centre for Atmospheric Science in southeastern England, says: (link)

FLIGHTS will become bumpier as global warming destabilises air currents at altitudes used by commercial airliners, climate scientists warn.
Willians then says:
CO2 caused non-uniform warming, which increased the jet stream winds.
Miranda Kerr (above) has demonstrated Uniform Warming.

Amazingly, this report has been reproduced around the world - See UK (Link); US (link); Europe  (link) Japan (link) etc; etc; etc.

The study was from Paul Williams  of the University of Reading's National Centre for Atmospheric Science in southeastern England.
"Our research suggests that we'll be seeing the 'fasten seatbelts' sign turned on more often in the decades ahead."
Suggests?  No accurate data?

Why not produce data BEFORE publishing a report!

Some comments to this story HERE.
John | 9/04/2013 10:46 1
What Crap, total alarmists. Focus on anything and it becomes a problem.
Robin Mark | 15/04/2013 11:20 2
Does this mean the sky really is falling??
Toscamaster | 17/04/2013 11:22 5
Oh the deceit revealed by Prof Williams’ itchy palm. To the British Chancellor of the Exchequer - BEWARE. 
This man and his co-authors are coming to raid your piggy bank through bogus applications for grants. ASK FOR ANY HARD REAL WORLD EVIDENCE. I’ll warrant that there is none. Computer modelling is NOT hard evidence.  Williams and his like demean real evidence-based scientific research. 
Robin Mark | 22/04/2013 13:22 8
news just in on this incredible topic....... garbage collectors are demanding higher wages as the change in climate is making the rubbish decay quicker (more quickly?) and is smelly.
 Robin Mark really hits the spot!

Rubbish!

 





Forthcoming Debate - Geelong Victoria UPDATE

Alan Barron
Sceptic Alan Barron recently wrote to the local press attacking the claims of anthropogenic global warming. Dr Ray Black of the Geelong Institute responded, attacking Alan's ideas and challenged Alan to a debate. Alan accepted and the debate is set for
Wed, May 1st 2013.
Time; 7.30pm
Venue; Gordon Institute.
Lt Malop Street, Geelong.
Room: Auditorium, G Block, 3rd Floor.
Some recent thoughts from Alan

All noise and wind, signifying not a lot

Australian Financial Review 17/4/13 (Link)

Victorian Premier Denis Napthine has lauded the opening of a $1 billion wind turbine farm near Macarthur in Victoria’s south-west.My question to the Premier is: why are you wasting taxpayers’ money on wind farms? No doubt he wants to be trendy and placate the carping hordes of environmentalists ensconced in Spring Street.Dr Napthine, these are the facts. Wind turbines will generate on average 30 per cent of their rated capacity over any given year.In England, research on wind farms has found that for a 26-month period between November 2008 and December 2010, there were 124 separate occasions when total generation from wind farms metered by the English national grid was less than 20MW.This is staggering when one considers the average capacity over the above period was in excess of 1600MW.For the same money, Hazelwood could have been made almost pollution free with modern technology. The urban myth that carbon emissions pose a threat to the environment needs to be tested.A royal commission into climate change must be quickly established to test the veracity that CO2 is a pollutant. Squandering billions on so-called renewable energy projects will not achieve any long-term benefit for this state.
Needy need Priority
Newcastle Herald  30/12/12 (Link)

AS 2013 looms, a person cannot but wonder about the priorities of affluent humanity. 
It is disturbing that the world, in 2011, spent $1.63 trillion on the military.  This was an increase of 50 per cent on the spending in 2001.There are 905 million undernourished people in the world today. The amount of money needed to feed them is $14 billion. Yet in America alone the amount spent on weight-loss programs is $74 billion.   Just $2.1 billion is spent on food aid.
Now nations are spending billions trying to second-guess nature on climate change.   The world spent $302 billion on fossil fuels to produce 97 per cent of the world’s energy needs. However, it spent a staggering $257 billion on ‘‘green energy’’ which supplied a paltry 3 per cent of energy supplied.
It’s not a question of money.  It comes down to priorities. In 2013 humanity should concentrate its attention on the real problems facing real people right now and shift the focus from self-interest to the needy of the world.
As is usual, when it comes to a debate the Alarmists go missing.

Alan Barron reported:


Debate cancelled.

Hi Everyone,
Sorry to report that Dr Black has decided not to proceed with the debate tomorrow night (Wed).
Regards
Alan


Thursday, 18 April 2013

Who are the DENIERS now?

Who are the Deniers now? 
Geoffrey Bloomer claims Connie Hedegaard is a  DENIER



by NCTCS Secretary Anthony Cox


Geoffrey Bloom’s reverse use of the term “denier” in the European parliament to assertions by European Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard that AGW was worse than ever was ironic but was it justified?  (See Video Below.)

Has AGW got worse? Does it exist at all?

In a recent article Fred Pearce had no doubt at all that AGW existed but acknowledged it had not met model predictions. Pearce conceded:
“there is a growing consensus among temperature watchers that the pace of warming in the atmosphere, which began in earnest in the 1970s and seemed to accelerate in the 1990s, has slackened, or stalled, or paused, or whatever word you choose. It may turn out to be a short blip; but it is real.” 
This is incontrovertible. In a straightforward analysis Werner Brozek compared all the main temperature records and in all of them there had been a lengthy period of flat or declining temperature. He found this:

Werner concluded: 
For RSS the warming is not significant for over 23 years. For RSS: +0.127 +/-0.134 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1990 For UAH the warming is not significant for over 19 years. For UAH: 0.146 +/- 0.170 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1994 For Hadcrut3 the warming is not significant for over 19 years. For Hadcrut3: 0.095 +/- 0.115 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1994 For Hadcrut4 the warming is not significant for over 18 years. For Hadcrut4: 0.095 +/- 0.110 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1995 For GISS the warming is not significant for over 17 years. For GISS: 0.111 +/- 0.122 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1996

For AGW exponents the required period before AGW can be described as affecting climate is at least 17 years. On this basis the 2 most reliable temperature recorders, the satellites systems, UAH and RSS, now officially contradict AGW. This conclusion is unavoidable considering that Werner has included in his graph CO2 which continues its monotonic increase. How can temperature have “slackened, or stalled, or paused, or whatever word you choose,” to quote Pearce, when CO2 is continuing to rise?

However Pearce does not accept that AGW has stalled just because temperatures appear to have stopped rising. He says:
“According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), all 12 years of the new century rank among the 14 warmest since worldwide record-keeping began in 1880. The second-warmest year on record, after 1998, was 2010.” 
1998 was a significant year. It is just after a climate shift occurred which was opposite in phase and temperature effect to the well documented 1976 climate shift which caused an increase in temperature. It was also the year of a particularly big El Nino although, not as Pearce implies, the biggest.

While it is true 1998 was the warmest year in the modern temperature era it is a statistical deceit to claim that most of the warmest years of the modern era occur post 1998. The reason is shown by this graph:



It is plain that the warming in the 1990s has not been continued with the trend in the 2000’s clearly declining; but that decline is from the high base set by the prior warming so naturally the years in the 2000’s are still going to be warmer than the 1990 years even though the trend in the 2000’s is the opposite to the 90’s.

In any event the temperatures of the modern era are not warmer than past temperatures such as during the Medieval Warming Period as McShane and Wyner found in their seminal statistical analysis of the data relied upon by Michael Mann.

The second reason Pearce uses to dismiss the current hiatus in temperature is by reference to Trenberth’s new paper. Trenbert is famous for admitting in the CRU emails that:
“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” 
The ‘missing heat’ refers to the fact that the estimates of energy by AGW theory predict more heat in the system than is being reflected in temperature. The most dominant explanation is that this energy/heat is being ‘stored’ at the bottom of the ocean. Trenberth couldn’t find it there before but in his new paper, after reanalysing the same data he can now find it.

For Pearce the pause in temperature increase does not mean AGW has stopped or doesn’t exist; it means the heat is still here, at the bottom of the ocean and will appear sometime in the future.

This is problematic. Accurate measurements of the heat in the ocean, OHC, only occurred after 2003. These measurements show that OHC to a depth of 700 meters is not increasing, or at least the unadjusted post 2003 ARGO data is not increasing as Tisdale shows in his comparison of the unadjusted, adjusted and model predictions of OHC post 2003:



The unadjusted ARGO data is in blue, the adjusted in red and the model predictions in green.

The unadjusted data is supported by the trend in sea surface temperatures which also show cooling:



The issue is, how can heat be accumulating at the bottom of the ocean from atmospheric warming when both the upper part of the ocean and the ocean surface are cooling?

Roy Spencer has discussed this issue. Spencer describes what may be happening: 
“Warming of the deep ocean originally caused by radiative forcing of the climate system cannot literally bypass the surface without some effect on temperature. But that effect might be to keep some cooling process from causing an even steeper dive in temperature.” 
For Spencer the deep ocean appears to be warming because the top 700 meters of the ocean and surface is cooling. Heat isn’t being stored at the bottom of the ocean; the cooling hasn’t yet reached there.

The evidence against AGW is now becoming cogent. While one can wish Bloom had not resorted to the term “denier” it does seem as though the shoe is now on the other foot.