All Scientists are Sceptics ~Professor Bob Carter

Whenever someone asserts that a scientific question is “settled,” they tell me immediately that they don’t understand the first thing about science. Science is never settled. Dr David Deming

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the science of climate change is the lack of any real substance in attempts to justify the hypothesis ~Professor Stewart Franks

A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf

Saturday, 30 March 2013

THE GREENHOUSE REVISITED


NZCLIMATE TRUTH NO 307

by Vincent Gray

30th MARCH 2013


THE GREENHOUSE  REVISITED

I have revised my previous paper “The Greenhouse and its effects”, as I find that I wrongly assessed the ideas of Fourier. It can be found at

I now find that Fourier was the originator of the Greenhouse idea, but it was based on his false assessment of the action  of a greenhouse.

He considered that a greenhouse became warm because of the reflection of infra red radiation from the glass top.

He then speculated that moisture in the atmosphere might trap radiation from the earth in a similar way
Pouillet and Tyndall agreed with this idea

Arrhenius measured the effect from Langley’s measurements but mistakenly attributed it to carbon dioxide without realising that Langley could not measure carbon dioxide; so Arrhenius actually measured water vapour  Current climate models perpetuate this error

A real greenhouse protects the interior from the real climate. The air inside cools the daytime heated surface by convection and evaporation of water  and  the warmer air improves plant growth and delays cooling at night.

A similar mechanism happens with the real climate, It  is also cooled by convection and evaporation of water by day and circulation of the air and oceans also delays cooling at night. but the energy involved in the real climate in convection, evaporation, formation of clouds and precipitation involves (at least 97W/sqm} is so much greater than the claimed  1.6W/msq effects of carbon dioxide since 1750, or the projected 6-9W/sqm  by 2100, the claimed effects of greenhouse gases. The “Greenhouse Effect” would be swamped by the  unpredictable chaotic fluctuations  of air and ocean circulation.  On top of this are the unpredictable chaotic fluctuations of the sun and of volcanic events..

Cheers


Vincent Gray

Fraud Awards - says Lord Monckton

Lord Christopher Monckton, at the end of his latest Australian tour has hit out at the awards given to
Alarmists. Writing for WND Weekly (link)

Climate fraudster? Have an award!

This week a lifetime achievement award for services to water conservation was given to Peter Gleick, who has openly confessed that he used wire fraud to steal and then publish confidential documents belonging to the Heartland Institute of Chicago.
 
Lord Monckton adds:
He had added a fabricated document that he had not received from Heartland. He had then widely circulated the stolen and fabricated material, causing considerable damage to Heartland but little, it seems, to his own reputation.
Then Lord Monckton details other Fraud Awards:
  • Michael Mann, the charlatan who created the now-discredited “hockey-stick” graph that incorrectly purported to eradicate the medieval warm period and concluded that today’s temperatures are unprecedented in 1,300 years, was recently awarded a fellowship of the American Geophysical Union.
  • Al Gore got the Nobel Mickey Mouse Four-Boxtops Peace Prize for his mawkish sci-fi comedy horror movie about the climate, just two days after a High Court judge in London had stated that “the Armageddon scenario that he depicts is not based on any scientific view”.
  • James Hansen, the many-times-arrested head of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies, who has done more to damage NASA’s reputation than any other employee with his nonsensical claims that sea level will rise by almost half the height of the Washington Monument, has had awards and grants showered upon him.


Friday, 29 March 2013

Renewable Energy Myths


Renewable Myths        by NCTCS Secretary Anthony Cox


Annika Dean’s article (see image) repeats several recurring misrepresentations about renewable energy.

The first is that renewable energy, particularly wind, is cheaper than coal. The 2011 Australian Productivity Commission shows the following cost comparison between the energy sources in Australia:
Coal fired power station $79 per Mw/h (megawatt/hour)
Gas fired power station $97 per Mw/h – or 1.2 times the cost of coal power
Wind power $150-214 per Mw/h
Solar power $400-473 per Mw/h
But even that does not show the true cost of wind and solar. In their paper computer scientist at The Weather Company, Andrew Miskelly and Physicist, Dr Tom Quirk analyse the actual power output of wind farms; their conclusions can also be used with solar power.

Miskelly and Quirk found 3 types of power output; the first is Installed Capacity which is the power which would be produced if the plant were running all the time. The second is Capacity Factor which is what is actually produced averaged over a year; and the third is the Reliability Point which is the probability of the Capacity Factor occurring at any one time.

They found wind’s Capacity Factor is about 30% but wind’s Reliability Point is between 2 and 6% at any wind farm. That means there is only a small chance that a wind farm can be relied upon to be producing power at any time.

This low Reliability Point is because wind power is intermittent. Advocates of renewable energy say this can be overcome by batteries or other storage for when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun not shining. But as professor Gordon Hughes notes if this could be done it would be being done. As well there is the insurmountable problem that you cannot use energy twice; if wind and solar store energy to be used later they cannot use it when they produce it.

The consequence of this is that renewable energy needs reliable fossil energy to be on constant backup. This adds greatly to the overall cost of energy because the expense of building the wind and solar farms and infrastructure does not replace the fossil sources but only adds to the overall cost to the energy grid. Part of that infrastructure expense is the special poles and wires necessary for wind and solar which provide power in surges not as a continuous even stream.

Advocates of renewable energy still maintain that fossil energy can be replaced. In 2010, the Zero Carbon Australia-Stationary Energy Plan was produced under the auspices of Melbourne University. This plan claimed all Australia’s energy could come from renewables by 2020. This plan was critiqued by engineers Martin Nicholson and Peter Lang in collaboration with professor Barry Brooks from the University of Adelaide.

Nicholson and Lang found Australia could in fact convert to renewable by 2020 at a cost of over $4 billion and if Australians were prepared to cut energy consumption by 63%. That’s no electricity for over half the week.

Ms Dean asserts that “disadvantaged countries” can use renewable energy instead of coal. That would be condemning those already “disadvantaged” people to a continuation of disadvantage.

Coal and other fossil fuels have had a history of pollution; but apart from nuclear energy they are the only energy sources which work reliably.

World-wide another 1200 coal-fired power plants are planned, over 75% of them in China and India.

The challenge is to make sure those new plants are not as polluting as the past ones. China is developing a technology called Ultra Supercritical plants; these greatly reduce all pollutants and even non-polluting CO2.

In addition if some of the money going into renewable research was used for developing Thorium energy, a relatively non-radioactive type of uranium, then those “disadvantaged” countries might have a real choice instead of the dream of renewables.

But then the greens were never interested in practical solutions; the reason for that is because their solutions are for imaginary problems.

Is the Global Warming Cooling?


Global Warming or Global Cooling; who's serious? Who's fooling?



Isn't it interesting that when there is a warm climate event, the alarmists cry out:

“The sky is falling.
         The World is warming!
Disaster’s forming!
         The World is warming!”

However when there is a cool/cold climate event, they are mute.

As an example, take March for the last two years in the USA.

March 2012 was a warmer than usual March and we had reports like:



However when the next March, 2013 (See images above), turned out to be very cold, the alarmists dismissed it as a “weather event.”

Accuweather reported: March Then and Now
Much of the northern United States has a blanket of snow on the ground this March, when compared to practically no snow this time last year. 
A series of storms sweeping across the nation from the Northwest to the Northeast and at times dipping into part of the South has delivered near- to above-normal snowfall in many locations this winter and early spring.

Other parts of the Northern Hemisphere have suffered several seasons of snowy shivering:

Farmers in crisis as big freeze worsens and dozens of newborn lambs die

THE big freeze could ­continue until the middle of next month as the relentless winter brings a crisis for farmers. (link)

Big freeze in Europe shows no signs of letting up as Venice's famous waterways ice over
The big freeze shows no sign of letting up in Europe as Venice's famed waterways fell victim to sub zero temperatures this morning. 
Water buses were stranded in some of the Italian city's canals after they froze solid in temperatures as low as -10C. 
More than 60,000 homes were left without power in Milan and officials declared a gas supply emergency as the cold temperatures saw pipes burst. (Link)

MOSCOW, March 25 (RIA Novosti) – 
Cold weather in Russia has delayed the annual northward migration of birds, the Russian Bird Conservation Union said on Monday. (link)

Extreme cold grinds northern France to a halt

Unseasonably severe cold weather paralysed much of northern France on Wednesday, after tens of thousands of homes were left temporarily without electricity, while roads and public transport services were running at reduced service. (link)
Northeast Italy crippled by snow and ice (link)
Trieste, March 26 - Schools in the northeastern city of Trieste and surrounding area remained closed and the local authorities invited residents to stay at home on Tuesday as the latest cold snap continued to bite.

It’s the cold, not global warming, that we  (UK) should be worried about (Link)
No one seems upset that in modern Britain, old people are freezing to death as hidden taxes make fuel more expensive. Each year, an official estimate is made of the “excess winter mortality” – that is, the number of people dying of cold-related illnesses. Last winter was relatively mild, and still 24,000 perished. The indications are that this winter, which has dragged on so long and with such brutality, will claim 30,000 lives, making it one of the biggest killers in the country. And still, no one seems upset. 

Yet the alarmists still maintain their cry:

    “The sky is falling.
            The World is warming!
     Disaster’s forming!
            The World is warming!”


 Take these recent examples:


Sophie Lewis, Post Doctoral Research Fellow at University of Melbourne and Sarah Perkins, Post Doctoral Research Fellow should have known better when they wrote in the Conversation

More angry, more often: March heatwave signals a new normal

March felt a lot like summer. Get used to it: looking ahead, all indications are that future summers could be just like this one, or more extreme.
From the Alarmist Sydney Morning Herald:

Hottest March in 70 years (link)

Melbourne is set for its hottest March since the record year of 1940 with one last day of temperatures in the mid-30s.
That, of course means that there was a hotter March before the post WWII industrialisation.

From the Alarmist ABC (link)
The city's (Sydney) tops of 33.5 at 2.26pm was the hottest March day since 2002 when the temperature reached 36.2 on the 17th.
That means that there was hotter March in 2002. Hasn't the "evil pollutant" (vital-to-life) Carbon Dioxide been constantly rising in that ten year gap? Why wasn't temperature rising in parallel?

So the ABC say it was the hottest March day for 11 years? Trove records (From the Sydney Morning Herald) another hottest March day for 11 years (1951). (link)


After Sydney's hottest March day for 11years, the Weather Bureau last night forecastcooler weather to-day, with clouds and showerslater, mostly fine with west to south winds.
The outlook for to-morrow, the bureau said,was for cooler weather with showers.
Sydney's highest temperature yesterday was100.2 degrees at 3.15 p.m. (32 per cent, humidity).
It was only the sixth March century in the 92years the weather records have been kept.
Sydney's March record is 102.6 degrees-onMarch 3, 1869.

SO we have, according to the ABC, 33.5ºC in March 2013, 36.2ºC in March 2002, and according to the SMH  37.9 (100.2) in March 1951, 38ºC (100.5) in 1927 (link), and don't forget 39.2ºC (102.6) in March 1869. (Curse those 1869 SUV Horse and Buggies!)

YEARTemperature
186939.2
192738
195137.9
200236.2
201333.5

Time  for the Alarmists  to stop cherry-picking individual weather events and realise that


 (if there is any) Global Warming, then it should be....well...er ..Global!




A kind of reverse Bob Geldof

R



Thursday, 28 March 2013

Could this be the new consensus?

The alarmists keep repeating the old line of "consensus."

They say that 97% of scientists agree that the world has warmed.

Using the bottom of the Little Ice Age until now,it is surprising that 3% didn't agree that the world had warmed.

The question asked by Doran, and Zimmerman (2009), Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change, Eos Trans. AGU, 90(3) was "When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?"

However the 97% was derived from a flawed study. See Here, here, here and here.

What if the sceptics start claiming the consensus?

Well, as the sceptical side of the debate is science based, you won't hear sceptics claiming a consensus. Consensus is a political term, not a scientific term.

Having said that, James Taylor in Forbes.com uses the "C" word. (link)
It is becoming clear that not only do many scientists dispute the asserted global warming crisis, but these skeptical scientists may indeed form a scientific consensus.
Don’t look now, but maybe a scientific consensus exists concerning global warming after all. Only 36 percent of geoscientists and engineers believe that humans are creating a global warming crisis, according to a survey reported in the peer-reviewed Organization Studies.
By contrast, a strong majority of the 1,077 respondents believe that nature is the primary cause of recent global warming and/or that future global warming will not be a very serious problem.
James previously reported that (link)
Only one in four American Meteorological Society broadcast meteorologists agrees with United Nations’ claims that humans are primarily responsible for recent global warming, a survey published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society reports.

As the late Israeli diplomat and politician Abba Eban said: "A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually. "

More Flannery FlimFlam





The Dictionary defines flimflam as humbug; deception; swindle.

The Prince of Flimflam is none other than Prof Tim Flannery. Anyone who has read Wes Allen's The WeatherMakers Re-examined (link) know that Prof Flanney's book is shown to contain
  • 23 misinterpretations, 
  • 28 contradictory statements,
  • 31 untraceable or suspect sources, 
  • 45 failures to reflect uncertainty, 
  • 66 over-simplifications or factual errors, 
  • 78 exaggerations and over a hundred unsupported dogmatic statements, many of them quite outlandish. (A brilliant Spreadsheet that documents all this available on request.)
Now Professor Tim is at it again.


Piers Akerman reporting in the Australian:

CLIMATE commissioner Tim Flannery has dismissed concerns about possible health effects from wind farm noise, saying illness may be caused by stress or residents being "sick with envy" at not getting payment for turbines on their properties. 
Speaking at a nurses' forum yesterday about the relationship between climate change and health, Professor Flannery fended off a question from a regional Victorian nurse who said she supported wind energy but was seeing many patients with health problems attributed to a nearby wind farm. 
"What I've read and experienced is that there are no proven health impacts directly from wind-related noise," Professor Flannery said. "What we do see is people who are adversely affected by it through perhaps stress or tension or worry."
Perhaps Mr Flannery hasn't read enough. Or could it be that he is prevaricating to boost his $180,000 part-time Panasonic Climate Commission position. 

Some papers from Scientific Sources:

Wind turbine noise, annoyance and self‐reported health and well‐being in different living environments  -Occup Environ Med. 2007 July; 64(7): 480–486. Pedersen, Waye. (Link)

Conclusion
There is a need to take the unique environment into account when planning a new wind farm so that adverse health effects are avoided. The influence of area‐related factors should also be considered in future community noise research.

WindVOiCe, a Self-Reporting Survey: Adverse Health Effects, Industrial Wind Turbines, and the Need for Vigilance Monitoring  (link)
DOI: 10.1177/0270467611412551 Bulletin of Science Technology & Society 2011 31: 334   Carmen M.E. Krogh, Lorrie Gillis, Nicholas Kouwen and Jeff Aramini

Results of this study suggest an underlying relationship between IWTs and adverse health effects and support the need for additional studies

The online version of this article can be found at http://bst.sagepub.com/content/31/4/334

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And from the Australian: (link)

WHEN American noise expert Robert Rand turned up to work in Maine, in the US northeast, in April to investigate the impact of wind turbines on nearby residents he was literally blown away. 
Not only did Rand's readings confirm many fears in the community, he claims to have become an unwitting victim himself. 
A member of the Institute of Noise Control Engineering and a technician with 30 years' experience, Rand was working for a philanthropic donor wanting to investigate why wind turbines were causing so much concern. 
Rand told The Australian yesterday his experience had been unexpected. He had measured the noise from wind turbines on many previous occasions without difficulty but, in testimony to the State of Maine Board of Environmental Protection in July, Rand said the turbines had delivered "a miserable and unnerving experience".
Over to you, Mr Flannery. As Australia's $180,000 part-time Panasonic Climate Commissioner, surely you should be more up to date on the recognised health effects of Wind Farms.

Wednesday, 27 March 2013

Creeping Communism, Agenda 21 and PM Gillard

Dr Ileana Johnson Paugh was born in Romania. In her book Echoes of Communism she describes the
universe of a child and a young woman growing up under communism and the pained, tumultuous transition of a young adult to life in a free, capitalist American society.
My march to freedom began on Friday the 13th early in the morning in my parent's concrete slab, government issued apartment, cracked and decaying from lack of maintenance and the 1977 earthquake that had destroyed hundreds of buildings.
I had packed my modest suitcase the week before with my spare pair of shoes, my one dress,  favourite books and my freshly issued Romanian passport. 
Many people would have killed to possess it and the blue stamped visa from the American embassy.
I had no money in my pocket; I was going to the land of plenty, who needs money there? We had this vision that money grows on trees in America and all you have to do is reach out and pluck it.
As a freelance writer, Dr Paugh has written a piece for the Canadian Free Press titled

Communism Alive and Well through UN Agenda 21 and Fabian Socialism of the West

She describes her life as a child in Romania including her old apartment building:
My former home, a tiny match box sized apartment on the fifth floor, still painted the same dirty sea foam green, was oozing decay and pollution stains. Nothing has changed since 1977 when an earthquake damaged many buildings but somehow left ours with cracks and a bathroom window dangling chunks of concrete from the reinforced steel bars, like a loose tooth. 
and the terrible life under a socialist communist regime.
I will never forget the misery and torture the dictator Ceausescu had subjected my people to during his reign of socialist/communist terror.
Then she issues the frightening warning to people of the West.

Communism did not die behind the Iron Curtain in 1989 – it re-emerged in a more nefarious form around the globe, promoted by the compliant media and hypocritical Hollywood. McCarthy was right about some of them after all. 
The has-beens of the old communism and total government control are nostalgic for the good ole days of totalitarianism, romanticizing the past, trying to reclaim their positions of power and privilege. The global communism of U.N. Agenda 21 is making great strides, using environmentalism, land preservation, zoning, and care for the planet as a tool. And the Fabian socialists in the west are winning the hearts and minds of low information voters who believe anything they are told over and over by the mainstream media.
In the US, POTUS Barack Obama is a Fabian Socialist. Jerry Bowyer, writing for Forbes:
Barack Obama is a Fabian socialist. I should know; I was raised by one. 
.........
Fabians believed in gradual nationalization of the economy through manipulation of the democratic process. Breaking away from the violent revolutionary socialists of their day, they thought that the only real way to effect "fundamental change" and "social justice" was through a mass movement of the working classes presided over by intellectual and cultural elites.
Australia should take heed of this warning. Our Prime Minister Julia Gillard is a member of the Australian Fabians (Link).

 She was also an executive of the Socialist Forum almost until being elected to parliament. She gave misleading answers to Lateline Host Tony Jones when she was the deputy opposition leader. (LINK)
"I did clerical and administrative work, Tony. This is so long ago. It's the days before modern computers and the internet, in the days where if you wanted to put out a meeting notice to people you wouldn't send an email, you'd get out an envelope and put it in your IBM electric typewriter and type up the address and then get the next one."
It wasn't that long ago AND she was much more than a clerical assistant.

Ron Boswell responded: (link)
 She was not simply typing addresses on envelopes, a response that degrades her serious contribution as officially noted in publisher credits as a Socialist Forum representative on the editorial committee. She is not thanked for her typing or clerical skills. She is in the main editorial game for a series of publications that set out extreme policy strategies from the Left. 
Only a few years before entering parliament, Gillard was an active force in promoting radical ideas that no other Labor leader worth their salt would have countenanced even from their cradle. 
For example, one of the Gillard (editorial committee) titles, The Greening of the Red, a recipe for left-wing totalitarian control via environmental activism, calls for re-regulating the exchange rate, reintroducing tariffs and reducing imports and foreign investment.
Julia Gillard, herself wrote, when defending the Socialist Forum: (link michaelsmithnews)
The members of the forum are from various backgrounds. Around 45 of the forum's members left the Communist Party of Australia in the division of year ago and about 80 members of the ALP.
With this background, our Prime Minister could not get a job in sensitive departments of her Australian Public Service - see Security Management Protocol

Why are security clearances necessary?Personnel security clearances are required in Australia, and in other countries such as the USA and UK, to limit the risk of sensitive and classified information being accessed by unauthorised organisations and persons, such as:·      foreign intelligence services
·      those who wish to overthrow or undermine the government by unconstitutional or violent means
·      terrorist groups, and
·      individuals who:
-   may be susceptible to pressure or improper influence
-   have shown dishonesty or lack of integrity which casts doubts upon their suitability, or
-   have demonstrated behaviour or are subject to circumstances which may otherwise indicate unreliability.
While you may not be a member of one of the above, the clearance process may identify if you could be subject to undue influence from these types of organisations or people.
Mind you, many parliamentarians would fail this - have shown dishonesty or lack of integrity!


Michael Smith (of michaelsmithnews) writes:

There are two files that contain the bulk of the Socialist Forum's papers below...


Download Socialist forum (2)